The first quarter of 2025 closed without the price spike many traders had positioned for. European storage came into winter reasonably full, China’s economy posted modest LNG demand growth rather than the sharp acceleration some forecasters had pencilled in, and the mild Atlantic weather that characterised much of January–February reduced heating demand across key import markets. JKM, the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark, traded between $13 and $16/MMBtu across the quarter — elevated compared to the 2019–2020 lows but a long way from the 2022 crisis prices.
For sovereign buyers in Asia and purchasing departments at European utilities, Q1 revealed several things about where this market is going.
Supply expansion is arriving, but unevenly
The headline development on the supply side is US LNG. Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 began first LNG production in late 2024, adding roughly 13.3 MTPA of nameplate capacity to the Atlantic basin over a two-year ramp. Corpus Christi Stage 3, operated by Cheniere Energy, added further trains in commissioning through Q1 2025. Combined with Sabine Pass and Freeport, the US is now the world’s largest LNG exporter by volume, a position it is consolidating rather than defending.
What that means for Asian buyers is more competition for Atlantic cargoes, not guaranteed access. European buyers under long-term US supply agreements continue to absorb a substantial share of Gulf Coast production. Spot and short-term flows to Asia depend on the arbitrage between TTF and JKM — and in Q1 2025, that spread narrowed enough to keep many Atlantic cargoes in Europe.
The Wood Mackenzie Global LNG Supply Report (Q1 2025) noted that roughly 68% of new US LNG production through 2026 is already committed under long-term offtake, meaning the spot availability from new US trains is structurally smaller than headline capacity numbers suggest.
Qatar expanding on its own terms
QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion remains the most consequential supply addition of this decade. The North Field East and South phases together add approximately 48 MTPA by 2030, raising Qatar’s total export capacity from 77 MTPA to approximately 126 MTPA. Critically, QatarEnergy has structured much of this new capacity under 27-year sale-and-purchase agreements — among the longest tenors in LNG history.
Asian sovereign buyers, particularly in South Korea, China, India, and Bangladesh, have signed significant portions of this new capacity. JERA’s agreement with QatarEnergy for 1.25 MTPA over 27 years, announced in late 2022, is representative of the deal structure: destination-flexible DES delivery, oil-indexed pricing with a slope in the 12–13% range, and delivery commencing aligned with North Field train startups.
For project developers assessing long-term supply for infrastructure in South and Southeast Asia, Qatar’s expansion creates a credible long-dated supply anchor — but the window for signing into North Field expansion volumes is narrowing as QatarEnergy approaches contracted capacity on the new trains.
Malaysia’s position: exporter and regional anchor
Malaysia remained among the top five LNG exporting nations in Q1 2025, with PETRONAS operating three LNG trains at the Malaysia LNG complex in Bintulu, Sarawak, alongside the newer MLNG Tiga plant. Combined nameplate capacity at Bintulu sits at approximately 29.3 MTPA, making it one of the world’s largest single-site LNG export complexes.
PETRONAS’s commercial positioning through Q1 reflected the company’s dual identity as both a major global LNG trader and a domestic energy provider. The company has been building its portfolio trading capability, increasing its participation in spot and short-term markets while maintaining long-term supply commitments to Japanese and Korean buyers that date back decades.
The PETRONAS Activity Outlook 2025–2027, released in early 2025, confirmed continued upstream investment in Sarawak and Sabah offshore fields that feed the Bintulu liquefaction complex. Reserve replacement at MLNG’s gas supply fields has been a recurring concern given the age of the Bintulu operation — some of the original long-term contracts signed in the 1970s and 1980s were based on reserve estimates that have since been substantially revised.
PETRONAS is addressing this through a combination of: new field tie-backs from Sarawak deepwater discoveries, partial regasification imports (a structural shift that would have been unthinkable a decade ago), and longer-term investment in Sabah’s offshore gas resources.
European buyers: not going away
One dynamic that shaped Q1 pricing globally was continued strong European LNG demand. The EU’s structural dependency on LNG — replacing pipeline flows that were largely absent through 2024 — has turned Europe from an opportunistic LNG buyer into a persistent anchor demand centre.
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated European LNG imports at approximately 120 billion cubic metres equivalent in 2024, around 30% above the 2019–2021 average. That baseline demand creates a floor under Atlantic basin LNG pricing and limits the volume available for price-sensitive Asian buyers.
For European sovereign buyers and utilities, the Q1 2025 pricing environment was relatively comfortable. The TTF forward curve was backwardated, winter demand came in below worst-case, and storage refill is beginning from a reasonable base. The risk scenario for European buyers in 2025 is a cold 2025–2026 winter following a summer refill season constrained by competing Asian demand — a scenario the IEA’s Gas Market Report flagged as a tail risk rather than a base case.
What the JKM-TTF spread tells you
The JKM-TTF spread is the most important single indicator for Asian sovereign buyers assessing short-term supply security. When JKM trades at a sustained premium to TTF of more than $2–3/MMBtu, Atlantic cargoes divert to Asia. When it narrows or inverts, Atlantic supply concentrates in Europe.
Through Q1 2025, the spread oscillated between minimal and modestly JKM-positive, reflecting balanced global supply and demand fundamentals. Buyers without long-term supply coverage who rely on tender-based procurement were able to source cargoes without distress, but at prices meaningfully higher than 2020–2021 contract reference points.
The ICIS LNG Markets weekly noted that delivered costs for spot LNG into South and Southeast Asian regasification terminals through Q1 averaged $14–16/MMBtu, roughly double the reference prices embedded in many domestic gas tariff structures in the region — a subsidy gap that continues to strain state energy company balance sheets.
Social media pulse
The LNG market discussion on X (Twitter) through Q1 2025 tracked these themes closely. Several energy analysts with significant followings provided consistent market commentary:
US is now #1 LNG exporter but don't confuse volume leadership with market control. When 68% of new capacity is already contracted, the "US LNG flood" narrative doesn't explain what happens to Asian spot buyers in a tight winter. The arbitage window is smaller than people think.
March 2025 · @saulkavonic on X →
QatarEnergy North Field expansion on track. The 27-year deal structures are reshaping how Asian utilities think about credit risk and destination flexibility. This isn't your grandfather's SPA — but the long tenor cuts both ways for buyers worried about energy transition timelines.
February 2025 · @energyintel on X →
What to watch in Q2 2025
Three indicators matter most going into the second quarter:
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China’s LNG import trajectory — First-quarter imports from China came in modestly above Q1 2024 levels. If industrial activity accelerates through spring, Chinese buying could tighten spot availability ahead of the European summer refill season.
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Plaquemines LNG ramp rate — Venture Global’s ramp from first LNG to plateau production is the critical US supply variable. Delays or lower-than-expected send-out rates would reduce Atlantic spot availability and support JKM.
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Malaysian upstream performance — PETRONAS’s output from Sarawak fields feeding MLNG is a supply variable that receives far less international attention than US or Qatari supply. Any disruption at Bintulu — operational or weather-related — affects the Pacific basin supply balance directly.
For sovereign buyers and infrastructure developers in Asia, Q1 2025 confirmed that LNG market fundamentals have normalised from the 2022 crisis without reverting to the complacent pre-crisis pricing of 2019–2021. The market is tighter than it looks on a headline basis, and the buyers best positioned are those with diversified supply portfolios and sufficient spot procurement capability to respond to short-term price signals.
Global LNG provides advisory and procurement support to sovereign energy buyers and LNG infrastructure project developers across Asia. Contact our team to discuss your supply strategy.