When 2025 began, the industry was operating under a set of expectations shaped by the 2022–2023 crisis and its aftermath. European buyers were still signing emergency supply agreements. Spot prices were elevated relative to pre-crisis norms but manageable. The wave of new US LNG production was months away from materialising. The question debated in energy circles was whether new supply would arrive fast enough to prevent another winter crisis.
By December, the year looked different from how it was anticipated. Supply grew substantially. Demand absorbed most of it. Prices remained elevated in historical terms. And the structural changes set in motion by the crisis — in European procurement, Asian contracting behaviour, and US LNG project momentum — turned out to be more durable than some analysts expected.
Supply: The US delivery
The US delivered on the production side. Plaquemines LNG Phase 1, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and incremental capacity additions at existing Gulf Coast terminals added approximately 15–18 MTPA of new production capability entering the market through 2025. Total US LNG exports for the year are estimated to exceed 110 MTPA on an annualised basis — a substantial increase from the 88 MTPA recorded in 2023.
The destination split of those additional US volumes was not uniform. A significant share went to Europe under long-term contracts with European utilities and portfolio traders. Pacific basin deliveries increased, but were partly offset by the TTF-JKM spread dynamics discussed throughout the year.
Cheniere’s annual production report for 2025 showed record throughput at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, with high uptime rates reflecting the operational maturity of the company’s liquefaction fleet. Cheniere remains the most reliable large-scale LNG exporter in the world by operational performance metrics — a claim that has practical implications for buyers assessing counterparty risk.
Australia contributed approximately 80 MTPA of exports in 2025, relatively unchanged from 2024. The year included two notable unplanned outages — one at Gorgon in Q1 and one at Prelude FLNG in Q3 — which together removed approximately 1.5 MTPA of production from the market during the affected periods. These outages were manageable at current supply levels but served as a reminder of the operational risk concentration in the Australian LNG fleet, which supplies approximately 30% of Northeast Asian import volumes.
Demand: Asia absorbed more than expected
The demand story of 2025 was primarily a China story, with an important regional subplot.
China’s LNG imports for 2025 are estimated at approximately 80–85 million tonnes — a record high, roughly 8–10% above 2024. The increase reflected several factors: strong industrial activity in coastal provinces, gas-to-power demand from a hot summer, coal-switching across the power sector supported by government policy, and growing household gas penetration in second and third-tier cities.
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), CNPC, and Sinopec were all active as LNG importers at volumes above their 2024 baselines. Chinese majors also continued signing long-term SPAs for new supply — QatarEnergy, US Gulf Coast projects, and Russian Arctic LNG volumes (the latter subject to ongoing geopolitical complexity).
India emerged as one of the year’s fastest-growing LNG import markets. Petronet LNG, India’s largest regasification operator, reported throughput at Dahej above nameplate for extended periods through Q3 2025. Adani Total Gas and GAIL India both recorded increased LNG throughput. India’s total imports are estimated at approximately 27–29 million tonnes for the year.
Southeast Asian demand growth continued, led by Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines as those markets brought new import infrastructure online and moved from pilot to operational status. The combined incremental demand from the Southeast Asian emerging importers added approximately 2–3 MTPA to regional consumption in 2025.
Prices: Neither crisis nor collapse
JKM averaged approximately $14–15/MMBtu across 2025, with seasonal variation — softer in shoulder months, firmer in the heating and cooling peaks. TTF moved in a broadly parallel range, with the spread between the two benchmarks remaining within 1–3/MMBtu for most of the year.
These price levels are elevated relative to the 2018–2021 period (when JKM often traded below $10/MMBtu) but far below the 2022 crisis peaks. For long-term contract buyers, whose effective purchase prices are typically linked to oil at 12–13% JCC slope, the economics through 2025 were relatively comfortable — Brent averaged approximately $75–$80/barrel for the year, implying SPA contract prices of approximately $10–$12/MMBtu delivered, well below spot.
The gap between long-term contract prices and spot has important commercial implications. Buyers with strong SPA portfolios have benefited from the spread. Buyers dependent on spot or short-term procurement have faced higher costs that stress-tested domestic pricing structures.
Malaysia’s 2025
PETRONAS’s 2025 was defined by several important developments:
The Kasawari gas field in Sarawak came into production, adding approximately 900 mmscfd of gas feed for the MLNG complex and providing partial relief for the reserve replacement challenge at Bintulu. The associated CCS project represents a milestone for Malaysian LNG’s decarbonisation story.
PETRONAS Global Trading continued expanding its portfolio, completing a record number of spot and short-term LNG transactions in 2025. The company’s trading desk has established PETRONAS as a genuine tier-1 LNG trader — not just a producer — a transition that took a decade of capability building.
Malaysia’s LNG export volumes for 2025 held approximately steady at 25–26 MTPA from Bintulu, with some upside from the Kasawari addition offset by maintenance at older trains.
The Malaysian Gas Association and the government’s National Energy Policy underscored gas’s continued centrality to Malaysian industrial and power sectors, even as renewable energy targets were progressively raised. The interplay between domestic gas supply obligations and LNG export commitments is a continuous management challenge for PETRONAS — one that will intensify as domestic demand grows.
Social media pulse
2025 year-end LNG summary: US delivered on production. China absorbed more than the bear case. Europe held. Prices stayed elevated but manageable. The supply glut that some forecast for 2025 didn't arrive — and demand growth is the main reason why. The 2026–2028 balance is tighter than consensus.
December 2025 · @woodmac on X →
The lesson of 2025 is that LNG markets are not going back to the pre-crisis complacency. Structural demand has reset higher. Supply additions are substantial but not overwhelming. The era of sub-$10 JKM isn't coming back anytime soon — if ever. Buyers who bet on price collapse are still holding uncovered positions.
December 2025 · @JavierBlas on X →
Heading into 2026
Three structural themes from 2025 carry into the new year:
The contracting window remains open but is narrowing. New supply from Qatar’s North Field expansion and the next wave of US projects continues to seek Asian offtake commitments. The terms available to buyers in early 2026 reflect the current fundamentals balance. If demand growth in China and India continues to outpace the base case — as it did in 2025 — the terms available in 2027 and 2028 will be materially less favourable.
Southeast Asian import infrastructure is moving from development to operation. 2025 saw several regional markets transition from theoretical LNG demand to actual procurement. The infrastructure buildout still has years of execution ahead, but the progress made in 2025 has changed the demand picture for Pacific basin supply.
The carbon intensity of LNG supply is a growing commercial variable. Japanese, Korean, and European buyers under ESG and regulatory pressure are increasingly differentiating supply based on scope-1 and scope-2 emissions intensity. Malaysian and Australian LNG suppliers with high-CO₂ feedgas are under particular scrutiny. The CCS projects being developed to address this — Kasawari, the Gorgon CCS programme — are commercially meaningful, not just PR.
2025 was, on balance, a year in which the LNG market functioned as a market should. The crisis-era distortions receded. The structural supply and demand forces that will define the next decade became clearer.
Global LNG’s year-end analysis is published for the benefit of sovereign buyers and project developers navigating the global LNG market. Reach our team to discuss your 2026 procurement and development strategy.